The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $3M Fantasy Golf Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]
The Field
The field for the U.S. Open is 156 players and includes several players (pros and non-pros alike) who have gained entry through local and international qualifying. With the start list stretched to the max and the cut this week featuring just the top 60 and ties, we’re about to start the toughest four-day event of golf on the planet. For daily fantasy golf purposes, that means getting all six of your players through the cut this week will be even harder than usual, as (potentially) over 60% of the field will be dusted by Friday night.
The 2024 version of the U.S. Open sees us head out East to one of the true gems of the American South in Pinehurst #2. Situated in Pinehurst, N.C. the Donald Ross-designed venue has hosted the US Open three times in the past and last hosted the event in 2014.
Scottie Scheffler is entering as the undisputed number-one player in the world after yet another win last week at Muirfield Village. There will be numerous Liv Golf players making an appearance this week including past US Open champions Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, and Bryson DeChambeau. 2021 US Open champion Jon Rahm’s status is unknown after he had to pull out of last week’s Liv event with a leg injury.
Some other notable late entries (thanks to movement in the OWGR or their alternate status) include Adam Scott and another top Liv player, Sergio Garcia.
The Course
Pinehurst #2; Pinehurst, North Carolina
7,543 yards, par 70; Greens: Champion ultra dwarf Bermuda
Designer: Donald Ross (1907)
Restoration Architects (year): Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw (2011)
Pinehurst #2 plays as a traditional par 70 (two par 5s and four par 3s). Its par 4s contain four that measure in over 500 yards and will test the player’s ability to hit a solid mid-to-long iron into what will likely be helaciously firm greens. The fairways should have some rollout out as well but expect many players to club down off the tee to better control their ball and avoid the extensive waste areas (more on that below). That was the strategy a lot of players employed back in 2014 and it led to an eclectic leaderboard with several shorter hitters and names we often see at places like the RBC Heritage pop up in the top 12.
Pinehurst #2 is a Donald Ross-designed venue and Ross has also designed several other PGA TOUR courses including Sedgefield Country Club (host of the Wyndham Championship) and East Lake (host of the TOUR Championship). Ross’s designs are known for more expansive greens that contain open areas for players to use if they want to play a shot low to the ground and run the ball up. Pinehurst #2 is no different and its bowl-shaped green designs — which contain some nasty run-off areas for chipping — will be a major talking point when discussing the course this week.
Much like the greens, the fairways at Pinehurst also contain no rough but instead “run-off” into natural waste areas that were restored in 2011 by Crenshaw and Coore when they renovated the course. The result is that Pinehurst will again play as one of the most unique US Open setups on the current rotation given that penalising rough is often a major feature of courses chosen for this event.
In place of that familiar thick rough will be highly variable waste areas that include short wild grass, plenty of sandy areas (some with lips or edges), and even the odd gorse bush that can swallow balls completely. The waste areas at Pinehurst were a major story from the 2014 US Open and will likely be once again. If a player drives it off the fairway whether or not his ball will be playable for his approach (second shot) will be something of a lotto. While some balls may land in flat sandy areas or in the thin grass, others will find small bushes or require punchout shots and be severely penalized.
In this sense, Pinehurst will carry a higher degree of variance off the tee than we're used to seeing at most US Open venues. Traditionally, the biggest hitters have excelled at the US Open but that won't always be the case this week. You can hit a near-perfect drive at Pinehurst #2, barely miss the fairway, and still have to take a penalty stroke on your second shot. While traditional US Open venues allow for strong players to simply bomb their tee shots and take their chances hitting out of the rough, Pinehurst will require more strategy and require the players to use brains over brawn on many holes.
Given the nature of this venue, I’d tend not to over-emphasize past US Open results this week. Pinehurst is long and will feature the usual carnage on the greens we’re used to seeing at US Opens but it’s also likely to play closer to an Open Championship, or even a PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP, where TPC Sawgrass’ plethora of off-the-tee hazards also brings in a higher amount of variance.
Good iron play is still essential and few were striking the ball than Kaymer on approach back in 2014, but good course management and the ability to handle these tight lies around the greens will be vital. For DFS, I’d think about going away from the standard style of player you usually target in US Opens (big hitters, strong off the tee) and instead look to players excelling with their irons and scoring clubs who have a history of playing well at Open Championships, where good management and the ability to withstand a stroke of good or bad luck is key.
2024 Weather Outlook: The weather this week looks gorgeous as there isn’t a hint of rain in sight and highs will be in the 85 to 90F range. That’s great for spectators although the players may have wanted a little moisture as these greens are sure to be running at insanely fast speeds by Sunday. Wind is also negligible this week although the gusts do creep up ever so slightly on Thursday and Friday afternoon (5-7mph). As such, early morning tee times will likely have the advantage the first two days just due to the added reception of the greens and lack of wind. Don't expect huge wave splits but if you’re targeting first-round leader markets or making single-round DFS lineups, early starters should get a very slight bump.
Last 5 winners
2023—Wyndham Clark -10 (over Rory McIlroy -9)
2022—Matthew Fitzpatrick -6 (over Will Zalatoris/Scottie Scheffler -5)
2021—Jon Rahm -6 (over Louis Oosthuizen -5)
2020—Bryson DeChambeau -6 (over Matthew Wolff even)
2019—Gary Woodland -13 (over Brooks Koepka -11)
Winning Trends
- Seven of the past 17 U.S. Open winners had a win on the season before claiming their U.S. Open title.
- 11 of the past 13 winners of the U.S. Open had recorded at least four top 10s on the season before their U.S. Open victory.
- Four of the last five winners of the US Open all placed inside the top 10 at the PGA Championship (the month prior) and gained over 7.0 strokes tee to green at that event.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Wyndham Clark — 2022 U.S. Open (10-under; **LA Country Club)
Lead-in form: (T12-MC-win-T24-T29)
SG: OTT—+5.5
SG: APP—+0.4
SG: TTG—+9.8
SG: ATG—+3.9
SG: PUTT—+7.3
- Clark had a great week on the greens and off the tee last year. He was second in the field in strokes gained off the tee and fourth in putting.
- His approach game lacked precision but he also managed to get up and down at a very efficient rate which made up for the lack of accuracy with his irons.
- In terms of style and how his stats may fit with Pinehurst I’d venture we’re likely to see the strokes gained numbers from Off the Tee and Approach flip this season with Pinehurst likely being a more approach-driven venue.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Collin Morikawa +1400 and $9,400
Comparables:
Hideki Matsuyama +4000 and $8,000
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
1. Scottie Scheffler ($13,000, Recent finishes: win-T2): Not much needs to be said about Scottie Scheffler at this point. If he can survive a new baby and an arrest over a span of two weeks (and still win a PGA event) he’ll probably be fine at Pinehurst. FWIW the 13.0 strokes on approach he gained last week at Muirfield was a career-best.
2. Collin Morikawa ($9,400, Recent finishes: 2nd-T4): Morikawa has to be getting fatigued from seeing so many other top players pip him at the end of these big events. Everything in his game seems to be flowing right now but he will need to find more upside with the putter and short game on this venue.
3. Rory McIlroy ($12,100, Recent finishes: T15-T4): McIlroy couldn’t find a higher gear last week at Muirfield, a course he’s generally struggled at. He did play Pinehurst back in 2014 so does carry a little experience edge over the rest of the top names this week.
4. Corey Conners ($7,200, Recent finishes: T20-T6): Conners regressed last week with his putter, after a fantastic week on the greens in Canada. He’s going to struggle on Pinehurst’s greens most likely but his approach game should give him a shot at another high finish.
5. Sepp Straka ($6,500, Recent finishes: T5-T5): Straka looks criminally underpriced this week for DFS. His around-the-green game has been superb of late and he’s posted top-5 finishes in four of his last five starts. A higher-end putter who has excelled at the Open and Sawgrass, you have to like his chances to potentially play the spoiler.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Hard to hate Morikawa or Matsuyama
As mentioned above, two players stuck out in our value section this week (based on the betting odds) and both are coming off strong finishes at the Memorial. Collin Morikawa ($9,400) has been snake-bit at the ends of events recently, but he doesn’t deserve to be this low in price given his recent form. Additionally, while Hideki Matsuyama ($8,000) does bring the risk of injury or a withdrawal his flat $8,000 price is hard to justify given how well he played last week — and how well he’s played this season when healthy. You can also use both men in a lineup with Scottie Scheffler ($13,000) and still have an average of over $6,500 left for three spots, which does seem unfair given how many quality names are in the 6k range.
Tournaments: McIlroy may bring experience edge
I doubt many people will be looking to McIlroy ($12,100) this week at this price in big field GPPs which may make it a great time to get on board. The Northern Irishman has excelled at links-styled venues, and in Florida, where the kind of tight lies we’ll see at Pinehurst are commonplace. He’s also played this course once prior back in 2014 and finished a respectable T23. It’s a big risk to fade Scheffler but if doing so, I like using McIlroy (who is still just +1100 to win this week) for maximum leverage. Looking much farther down the board I also like the prospects of Sergio Garcia ($6,600) this week who also played Pinehurst in 2014. He along with names like Straka ($6,500 - see above) and Daniel Berger ($6,600 - see below) brings solid upside at cheap prices and will allow you to make unique builds for GPP lineups.
MY PICK: Viktor Hovland ($9,800)
It’s always tough when you come to a venue that most of the top players in the field haven’t seen before but I do have a good feeling that Hovland will enjoy the test of Pinehurst #2. Hovland certainly has power off the tee but he’s generally been at his best when the course hasn’t featured overly bruising rough and that’s been evidenced by the fact that many of his early career wins came on resort-style courses in Puerto Rico and Mayakoba. Hovland’s also done his best work at the majors at the Open Championship, on courses similar to Pinehurst #2 (where traditional rough doesn’t exist); he’s finished inside the top 15 at the Open in all three of his career starts.
From a recent form perspective, it’s clear the switch back to his old swing coach has also done Hovland a world of good. He’s back to gaining multiple strokes on approach every week and has again become one of the most consistent players off the tee in the game — even trumping Scheffler in that area the past two events. His around-the-green game is always a concern but the lack of thick rough this week should help him keep things simple, much like it did for Martin Kaymer back in 2014, a notoriously poor chipper who used his putter in many instances that week from off-the-green to get up-and-down with success.
Given how well he’s trending I’d have no issue building lineups around Hovland at $9,800 and at +2000 on the DraftKings Sportsbook, he still makes for a nice outright target at over 5x the odds of Scheffler.
MY SLEEPER: Daniel Berger ($6,600)
Daniel Berger has now played in 12 events since returning from injury. He’s missed five cuts but has managed some decent weeks including a T13 at the Byron Nelson last month where he shot four rounds of 67 or better. He had to go through qualifying to gain his spot this season and it was interesting to see him pop with an event-best 65 down in Jupiter which helped him gain his spot.
Despite the up-and-down season, Berger does set up extremely well for this kind of venue. He grew up playing tight lies and fast Bermuda greens down in Florida and has top-10 finishes at both the PLAYERS and the Open Championship to his credit. He’s also played in eight US Opens before this season, landing top 10 finishes at this event in 2021 and 2018, and even played Pinehurst #2 back in 2014; he landed a T28 finish at the notoriously tricky course as a rookie.
Before imploding in Canada (right before qualifying) Berger looked like he may be turning a corner. His ball-striking had gained him multiple strokes in two straight starts and his notoriously accurate and reliable off-the-tee game seemed to be flowing again. He’s only $6,600 this week for DFS which makes him relatively cheap as a punt play and at an event where only the top 60 make the cut, his upside makes him the sort of player worth taking a shot with.
For betting his top 20 odds (+600) are nearly the same as Tiger Woods (+650) this week and given the trajectory Berger’s game seems to be on, that makes this price seem worth a wager.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $3M Fantasy Golf Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
